Triggers in Action
Triggers in Action is all about testing betting strategies. Roughly each week we will take a new strategy, program it into triggers and test these triggers for 7 days in a row to reveal any vulnerabilities or risks, tweak their input to get a better output and assess their performance.
This is going to be an exciting experience for both me, an experienced trading bot developer, and you, experienced BetFair traders!
I will test sports betting strategies in football, tennis, horse racing, Greyhound racing and occasionally in basketball and hockey.
I will record my wins and losses as a set of account statement files for you to download. At the end of each testing week, I will publish the results in a weekly blog post in this section. I will try to be brutally honest with you! If something isn’t working, I won’t be sweeping it under the carpet. If my account statement is horribly red, you will see it! It will serve as a warning for you to steer clear of such dead-ends of strategies.
Each post will also contain a link to a downloadable installation package with the triggers I used, the Market Locator template for searching the right markets and the program settings I’ve used for the testing. Run this package, and you will be able to replicate the results yourself!
How and where I test the triggers?
I use our BetVPS service
to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.
I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.
Warning: because I will place test bets only (albeit with a delay of 1.5 sec to imitate the delay you may experience if your connection is not very fast or if the market is In-Play), I will not be testing certain strategies that absolutely depend on BetFair’s real mechanism of bet matching, such as all kinds of scalping. I believe that Test Mode is good for testing 90% of betting strategies, yet it does have its limits, so take that into account when switching to real mode.
Because I will bet in real markets, there is no chance I can tweak the winners – you can watch the events yourself and catch me red-handed if you spot any discrepancies between my statement and the actual sports outcomes.
I will try various settings and configurations until I find the ones that look optimal to me. But I’ll never do any changes to either triggers or settings during the day, after the trading session has begun. If I need to make any changes, I do it before the start of the next day.
I am open to suggestions and feedback. Please post your ideas and comments on our forum.
Backing on the selection with the greatest increase in matched volume%
Laying on the horse whose price never dropped, and trading it out at In-Play
Back on the horse whose matched volume% has increased the most over the 10 minutes leading to the start of the race. The first stats-based Trigger in Action report!
Laying on Greyhounds with a staking plan based on the strike rate
Record all horses whose prices have dropped by at least 5 ticks since 10 minutes before the start. Lay on the lowest priced horse whose price has NOT dropped, then green up or stop loss later.
Backing and greening up on a pre-match favourite in Tennis
Lay on the second favourite in a Greyhound race; increase your bet liability based on your strike rates over the last 10, 20, 30 and 50 bets.
Laying against 0 - 1 in Correct Score (football)
In the first games of the tennis match back on the pre-match favourite if its price has increased significantly; then green up in the second set.
Backing on Over 1.5 with a profit accumulator and a loss recovery plan
This strategy is very similar to Laying against 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in Correct Score in favour of the underdog, except that is even more straightforward: you lay against 0 – 1, period, regardless of whether the favourite team plays at home or away.
Laying on the favourite horse based on the form of the first 3 favs
My plan was to play with backing on Over 1.5 goals in a football match with a nil score. With a profit accumulator and a loss recovery, my balance went up and down over these 9 days of testing. Try the triggers yourself in the downloadable setup file.
Laying against 0 - 3 or 3 - 0 in Correct Score (football) in favour of the underdog
Lay on the first favourite in a race where the forms of the first three favourites satisfy the following criteria:
- The form is not empty;
- The last three symbols of the favourite’s form do not include 1 or 2;
- The last three symbols of the second favourite’s and third favourite’s forms do not include 1.
Lay Dutching on players in Tennis
It’s plain and simple: you lay against the score 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in favour of the underdog at the beginning of a football match.
If you have a large enough bank or if you don’t mind placing small bets, then this strategy is for you.
Backing on the server in Tennis and trading out later
The main expectation behind this is that the prices of tennis players may change dramatically between the games, so there is often a chance that the favourite loses its position and the underdog comes forward as the new favourite (and thus his/her price drops). They sometimes swap places several times during the match.
Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator
The trigger backs on the current server at the start of each game in a Tennis match, then trades it out at the end of the game if it has won. In case of a service break, the trigger increases the bet to try and recoup the loss in the next game.
Backing in the Place market on horses whose prices have increased in the Win market
It’s all about prices: how the exchange commission can fundamentally ruin your loss recovery and what you can do about it.
A profit accumulator plan based on 12 days of testing.
Backing on Over 0.5 Goals at increasing prices
Counter-intuitively, you need to back on the horses in the Place market if their prices in the Win market have increased over the specified period, to get the best ROI.
Laying on Greyhounds with loss recovery
Back on Over 0.5 goals in football at three different moments during the first half: get the best odds while the score is still 0 - 0. A loss recovery plan included.
Lay Dutching on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites on horse racing with green-up
At 30 seconds before the start of a race, lay a percentage of the bank (or to a liability which is a percentage of a bank) on the chosen favourite in a Greyhound Win market, with the minimum and maximum price. Recover potential loss in several steps.
Maria Lay Staking Plan
At 3 minutes before the start of a horse race, place three Lay Dutching bets on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites. Green them up as soon as possible.
Over/Under Martingale (Football)
The idea behind the Maria staking plan is very simple: you bet different amounts depending on the size of your bank and on the price of the selection. Your stakes are adjusted if you make profits or get exposed to losses. The flexibility of this plan makes it so efficient.
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This is a classic Martingale staking plan applied to "Over/Under" markets in football. Lay against Over x.5 goals and recover your losses as the score increases.
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