Laying against 0 - 1 in Correct Score (football)

Description

This strategy is very similar to Laying against 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in Correct Score in favour of the underdog, except that is even more straightforward: you lay against 0 – 1, period.

I was intrigued by a member of a betting forum to test this strategy as they claimed that statistically this outcome (0 – 1) happens less often than, say, 1 – 0.

Without adding further complications to this strategy, except for a plain loss recovery, I set to this task. See my results below.

Triggers

Download the trigger setup file.

Profile name: lay-0-1-correct-score

How to run this trigger package:

1. Download and run the above installation file.

2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).

3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:

Here are the constants you can adjust:

min_odds Minimum lay price
max_odds Maximum lay price
max_recovery_odds Maximum price during the loss recovery cycle
min_vlm Minimum market volume (Correct Score)
mins_before_start When to start betting (minutes before the off)
init_liab Size of liability (% of current bank)
target_loss Maximum loss (% of bank) after which the triggers stop betting
target_profit Maximum profit (% of bank) after which the triggers stop betting
cycle_length Number of steps in the loss recovery cycle

There was no limit on the number of matches where the bets could be placed simultaneously.

Triggers In Action

Throughout the whole testing period, I have tested the triggers with the following settings:

min_odds 1.01
max_odds 50
max_recovery_odds 50
min_vlm 100
mins_before_start 1.5
init_liab 1
target_loss 20
target_profit 15
cycle_length 3

Day 1, July 09, 2019

Total P/L: 25.36
ROI: 45.52%
Wins: 35, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 09/07/2019

Day 2, July 10, 2019

Total P/L: 5.78
ROI: 14.05%
Wins: 28, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 10/07/2019

Day 3, July 11, 2019

Total P/L: 37.12
ROI: 94.98%
Wins: 46, losses: 0.

Download Statement for 11/07/2019

Day 4, July 12, 2019

Total P/L: 62.0
ROI: 44.64%
Wins: 30, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 12/07/2019

Day 5, July 13, 2019

Total P/L: 59.17
ROI: 44.34%
Wins: 72, losses: 6.

Download Statement for 13/07/2019

Day 6, July 14, 2019

Total P/L: 11.41
ROI: 30.58%
Wins: 49, losses: 1.

Download Statement for 14/07/2019

Day 7, July 15, 2019

Total P/L: 13.82
ROI: 28.92%
Wins: 32, losses: 3.

Download Statement for 15/07/2019

Day 8, July 16, 2019

Total P/L: -109.41
ROI: -83.88%
Wins: 22, losses: 4.

Download Statement for 16/07/2019

My bank balance and statistics:

Laying against 0 - 1 in Correct Score (football)

 

While the balance growth looks very promising for the whole week up to 16/07, I personally would not go for this plan because of the sharp plunge at the end of the graph. Something tells me that I might never recover from such a plunge, as my liabilities increased very soon after a series of losses. Generally, I was surprised that it stayed in the green for such a long time.

I don’t have any logical grounds to believe that this strategy is worth pursuing in the long run, although it does look good within a short time frame. I would maybe stay away from matches with an obvious favourite playing away. In that case, I’d add the following condition to the laying trigger:

and Selection’s Trigger Expression football1_s_2_back_price is greater than X

where X is the minimum price of the away team. Remember that for this condition to work, you will also have to load and refresh the Match Odds market before the bet is placed (and delete it later).

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Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!

How and where I test the triggers?

I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.

I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.

I use Test Mode only.

You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.

If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.

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