Backing and greening up on a pre-match favourite in Tennis
I came up with this idea after watching a number of tennis matches on BetFair where the obvious favourite of the match (pre-off) often lost the first set, only to regain his/her control in the subsequent sets and eventually win.
To be precise, I was looking for this scenario:
The pre-match favourite player starts their first set by losing a couple of games to the underdog. Their price reacts to this by growing high above the initial value.
After the end of the first set and somewhere in the middle of the second set, the favourite hits back and starts leading again, their price returning to the initial value or even dropping further.
This would let me make a set of triggers to do the following:
1. After the start of the match and during the first 5 games of the set, back on the pre-off favourite if its price increased by at least 25% compared to the pre-off price.
2. Green up to 25% of profit or close the bet anyway after the end of the second set, accepting any losses if necessary.
Profile name: back-fav-tennis
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
|bet_size||Back bet size|
|min_fav_price||Minimum price of the bet|
|max_fav_price||Maximum price of the bet|
|min_vlm||Minimum matched volume of money in the market|
|max_game||Maximum number of the game in which to back|
|greenup_prc||Greenup profit %|
|min_preoff_price||Minimum price of the favourite before the off|
|max_preoff_price||Maximum price of the favourite before the off|
|min_growth||Minimum increase in the price for the back bet, in % of the pre-off price|
I did not apply any loss recovery nor was I limiting the number of simultaneous matches with bets (not that there were many of them that matched the criteria).
Triggers In Action
Throughout the whole testing period, I have tested the triggers with the following settings:
Day 1, September 29, 2019
Total P/L: 2.42
Wins: 1, losses: 0.
Day 2, September 30, 2019
Total P/L: 20.27
Wins: 12, losses: 2.
Day 3, October 01, 2019
Total P/L: 26.44
Wins: 14, losses: 1.
Day 4, October 02, 2019
Total P/L: -6.89
Wins: 3, losses: 2.
Day 5, October 03, 2019
Total P/L: 3.4
Wins: 5, losses: 3.
Day 6, October 04, 2019
Total P/L: -4.09
Wins: 4, losses: 3.
Day 7, October 05, 2019
Total P/L: -1.87
Wins: 4, losses: 1.
Day 8, October 06, 2019
Total P/L: 4.24
Wins: 5, losses: 1.
This strategy is very easy to understand and will appeal to green-up enthusiasts, as there are not quite many examples of successful green-up strategy out there, unless you do manual scalping.
The important thing here is to bet on an obvious favourite, i.e. with a clear imbalance between the prices of the players. Backing on players with even chances will lead you nowhere.
The profits are modest yet if you consider that there was no loss recovery in place, they give you room for many improvements, as the principle idea seems to have been proved here. You can add a simple staking plan or transfer this strategy to football by backing on a favourite that lost a goal to the other team in the first half.
If you liked this trigger review, sign up for our newsletter to be the first to learn about new reviews!
How and where I test the triggers?I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.
I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.