Backing on the selection with the greatest increase in matched volume%
This is the first Trigger in Action that is based on the report from our soon-to-be-released new service BFStats. This service will test some predefined and bespoke strategies in different types of sports against historical market data and allow you to use several filters to find the optimal combination that will bring you the maximum profit.
I tested the common sense idea of backing on the horse whose matched volume percentage has increased the most over the few minutes before the start of the race.
Prior to actually testing this idea with triggers, as part of the BFStats service, we prepared a report based on 130,000 races whose historical data we have acquired under BetFair's Historical Data Licence. It's the same historical data as used in our Time Machine.
A sample BFStats report
The report reflects the growth of volume of matched money on horses in various races. The data is displayed for the horses with the maximum change in volume over the 10 minutes preceding the start of the race. The report did not take into account the markets where the sum of matched money was less than £1,000 at 10 minutes before the start.
The report compares specifically the percentage of money matched on each horse, not the absolute amount of money matched. It may happen that the favourite will have the biggest lump of money poured in just before the off, yet the second favourite will increase its percentage of money placed, for example, from 2% to 15%, and so the bet will be place on the latter, not the former.
So after I'd got the impressive backtesting data, I put together a simple set of triggers:
- At 10 minutes before the start of a race (any race), remember every selection's volume %. The latter is the amount of money matched on each selection divided by the total amount of money matched in the market. All markets with less than £1,000 in matched money are deleted automatically.
- At 6 seconds before the off, back at SP on the selection whose volume% has increased the most. Again, it's not the absolute amount of money increased we're talking about, it's the increase in the relative share of the market. If you look at the statements available for download below, you will notice that the greatest profits were resulting from bets on underdogs.
That's it: flat stakes, no loss recovery, no fiddling with trading out to reduce the loss! And yet it's working!
Profile name: back-max-volume-increase
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
|mins1||Number of minutes before the off to remember selections|
|mins2||Number of minutes before the off when to place a bet|
|min_vlm||Minimum matched market volume at the start of monitoring|
|min_change||Minimum change in volume%|
|max_change||Maximum change in volume%|
|bet_size||Size of bet, % of current bank|
|min_bet||Minimum bet amount|
|max_rank||Maximum rank of the selection to back on|
Triggers In Action
August 23 to September 15, 2020
During the whole period of testing, I've used the following settings:
The values of
max_change have been selected beforehand, experimentally.
I have tested the triggers for 24 days in a row -- the longest stretch of time in the historry of Triggers in Action!
Day 1, August 23, 2020
Total P/L: 67.63
Wins: 11, losses: 20.
Day 2, August 24, 2020
Total P/L: 173.21
Wins: 14, losses: 31.
Day 3, August 25, 2020
Total P/L: 189.52
Wins: 22, losses: 33.
Day 4, August 26, 2020
Total P/L: 67.25
Wins: 21, losses: 46.
Day 5, August 27, 2020
Total P/L: 254.29
Wins: 23, losses: 48.
The number of bets was equally small (even less races would now qualify), but luckily I did not suffer any losses.
Day 6, August 28, 2020
Total P/L: 92.48
Wins: 19, losses: 40.
Day 7, August 29, 2020
Total P/L: 365.65
Wins: 25, losses: 70.
Day 8, August 30, 2020
Total P/L: 56.79
Wins: 14, losses: 38.
Day 9, August 31, 2020
Total P/L: -188.27
Wins: 11, losses: 36.
Day 10, September 01, 2020
Total P/L: -50.42
Wins: 12, losses: 42.
Day 11, September 02, 2020
Total P/L: -367.06
Wins: 11, losses: 51.
Day 12, September 03, 2020
Total P/L: 44.68
Wins: 21, losses: 50.
Day 13, September 04, 2020
Total P/L: 5.57
Wins: 15, losses: 51.
Day 14, September 05, 2020
Total P/L: 377.67
Wins: 24, losses: 56.
Day 15, September 06, 2020
Total P/L: -71.79
Wins: 9, losses: 41.
Day 16, September 07, 2020
Total P/L: 421.10
Wins: 11, losses: 33.
Day 17, September 08, 2020
Total P/L: -265.52
Wins: 14, losses: 40.
Day 18, September 09, 2020
Total P/L: 39.36
Wins: 14, losses: 48.
Day 19, September 10, 2020
Total P/L: 536.95
Wins: 17, losses: 32.
Day 20, September 11, 2020
Total P/L: -229.97
Wins: 12, losses: 55.
Day 21, September 12, 2020
Total P/L: 318.21
Wins: 24, losses: 58.
Day 22, September 13, 2020
Total P/L: -229.12
Wins: 13, losses: 45.
Day 23, September 14, 2020
Total P/L: 648.84
Wins: 16, losses: 29.
Day 24, September 15, 2020
Total P/L: 179.48
Wins: 7, losses: 11.
|Max. single-bet loss:||
That's right, the net profit is £2,436.55, you can trust your eyes! Although I did not trust mine at first.
Here are possible hidden pitfalls you should be aware of:
- Your bet might not be matched at In-Play. Although the triggers avoided markets with less than £1,000 in matched volume, still there is no guarantee that your bet will be matched at SP in full. In fact, if you place a large bet, it might influence the value of SP itself! The triggers have been tested in Test Mode, and that's somewhat different from real money.
- You will lose, a lot, and very often! If you take a look at the daily figures, there is not one day when the number of losses did not outweigh the number of wins. You will have to gather your courage to live through losing streaks, the longest of them being 20 losses in a row. If I had started testing on August 31, I would have lost £607 within a day, which normally would have spurred an average bettor to stop right there and then.
- You cannot place small bets, as these triggers back at SP, and the minimum amount to back at SP is £2, with no ways to circumvent this. Be prepared to lose a big chunk of your bank before you start getting any profits.
- This strategy will probably work well if you and a handful of other players are the only ones who exploit it. Once others start flocking in to back on the same horse, the price of that horse will drop to a point where it will no longer be profitable to back on it. So hurry up to try it before your competitors get ahead of you!
This strategy seems to be working in the long run, at least that's what the stats are telling us, and also the 24 days over which I have run these triggers.
There is a catch in the trigger settings: I did not use the most profitable ones! There are further filters by country, race length, price range, and even type of bet (back or lay) which will allow you to maximise your profits!
If you are interested in trying them out, be among the first to use our new service BFStats which we are currently preparing for release. Subscribe to our newsletter (below) and be the first to learn about new reviews and new services!
How and where I test the triggers?I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.
I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.