Laying on Greyhounds with a staking plan based on the strike rate
The idea of this set of triggers was prompted by a post by betfair winner: he referred to a staking plan at The Staking Machine that suggested measuring your strike rate at fixed intervals and then adjusting the size of your bet if the strike rate is below (or above) the target value.
I played with this idea for a month or so, trying different sports and types of bets, and here is what I’ve come with, which I believe is the optimal result of my efforts.
1. Lay on the 2nd favourite in a Greyhound race.
2. Measure your strike rates over the last 10, 20, 30 and 50 bets.
3. If they are below the target rate of 73% (i.e. if you win less than in 73 cases out of 100), then add a certain fraction to your bet liability for each measurement that falls short (see the constants for concrete numbers). If all four are below the target, then add all four fractions to your liability: 0.15% + 0.1% + 0.075% + 0.05%.
Look at the scheme below to quickly grasp the idea:
Profile name: lay-strike-rate
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
|init_liab||Initial liability (% of bank)|
|target_rate||Target strike rate, %|
|fav_rank||Rank of the favourite to lay|
|incr_size||Size of a liability increment, % of bank|
|incr10||Number of increments if the last 10 bets less than target|
|incr20||Number of increments if the last 20 bets less than target|
|incr30||Number of increments if the last 30 bets less than target|
|incr50||Number of increments if the last 50 bets less than target|
|seq1||Number of bets in the first interval|
|seq2||Number of bets in the second interval|
|seq3||Number of bets in the third interval|
|seq4||Number of bets in the fourth interval|
As you can see, you get to adjust the length of each of the four sequences (10, 20, 30 and 50 by default), as well as the amounts you want to add (or deduct) to your bet when the strike rate measured within each sequence falls below target_rate.
The programming was a complicated job, but once I had it up and running, I had no problems with setting it up to run on its own.
The laying trigger also writes a message to the Program Log with the current values of s_rate (the total strike rate since the start of betting) and the moving average strike rates within the set bet intervals (10, 20, 30 and 50).
Triggers In Action
Day 1, January 16, 2020
I started testing the triggers with the following settings:
So I would add 0.15% of bank if my strike rate dropped below 68% over the last 10 bets, another 0.1% – if it was also below 68% over the last 20 bets, another 0.075% – the last 30 bets, and 0.05% if it the strike rate fell behind the target over the last 50 bets.
Obviously, the additional portion of the bet would not be complete until after I had made 51 bets. In that case, the trigger would only take into account the results of the last 10, 20 or 30 bets.
For about 3-4 days before that I had tried backing on the favourite with the same staking plan, but failed miserably (meaning I suffered losses all the time). This was my first attempt at laying on a low-priced Greyhound.
Total P/L: -75.96
Wins: 32, losses: 27.
Day 2, January 17, 2020
As you can judge, the first day of laying was a disaster. I was surprised by the seemingly low strike rate of just 54% vs the expected 68%.
I decided to try my luck with the second favourite instead.
I would lay on the second favourite with odds up to 5.2.
Note how I also increased the target_rate to 73% as second favourites are expected to lose more often than the first ones.
Total P/L: 12.24
Wins: 61, losses: 32.
Day 3, January 18, 2020
Inspired by the second day’s profit, I proceeded with the same settings until the last day of testing.
Total P/L: 65.13
Wins: 110, losses: 28.
Day 4, January 19, 2020
Total P/L: 100.97
Wins: 90, losses: 20.
Day 5, January 20, 2020
Total P/L: 33.56
Wins: 97, losses: 29.
Day 6, January 21, 2020
Total P/L: 85.68
Wins: 88, losses: 20.
Day 7, January 22, 2020
Total P/L: 54.58
Wins: 97, losses: 27.
Day 8, January 23, 2020
Total P/L: -117.97
Wins: 90, losses: 39.
If you were getting all excited about this staking plan, then this day’s results must have had the effect of a cold shower on you!
Day 9, January 24, 2020
Total P/L: 139.20
Wins: 105, losses: 23.
Day 10, January 25, 2020
Total P/L: 20.01
Wins: 112, losses: 33.
This is a solid staking plan, with clear logic behind it: if you have hit a short losing streak, but your overall chance of winning is much higher, it makes sense to temporarily increase your bet (although without wiping your account) until the losing streak is over.
The triggers keep track of your winning rates on an ongoing basis, increasing and decreasing the stakes gradually, earning you a steady long-term profit.
What I liked extremely about this staking plan is that on every given day, the liabilities from each bet remained low, the maximum being just -£16.62 with a £1,000 staring bank – how cool is that?!
Best of all, you can experiment with your own intervals and bet fractions. However, I would only recommend this plan for strategies with a sufficient number of bets placed under similar circumstances (indeed, if you can’t predict on what grounds you will make your next bet, the very term “strike rate” makes no sense).
This strategy is incredibly flexible, as you can easily convert it into a set of backing triggers, change the fixed liability to a fixed about of bet, change the selection you want to bet on, etc.
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How and where I test the triggers?I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.
I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.