Collective Greenup

Description

  1.  Towards the start of a race, pick the third, fourth and fifth favourites and remember their odds.
  2. When their cumulative odds drop by a given percentage, Dutch-Lay them to a fixed liability. By the drop of cumulative odds I mean the change in their lay book%. E.g., if first they were priced 5.0, 7.8 and 12, then their book% was 100/5 + 100/7.8 + 100/12 = 41.15%. Now if all of them go down, or if at least some of those odds drop down enough to cover the raise of the other, then they will qualify for the Dutch. E.g. if the above prices changed to 4.8, 7.3, 16, the book% will be 40.78%, which means their cumulative odds decreased in spite of the growth of the third price.
  3. Wait till there is an opportunity for a collective green-up. Such opportunity will occur when the sum of their potential tradeout P/L is positive. See the illustration below:

    The sum of potential tradeout P/L is positive

The main idea I'm playing with is the chance to compensate one selection's losses by the other selection's profits in a highly liquid market. Why does it have to be liquid? We need enough volatility for the prices of the three selections we bet against to change independently of each other. Normally the exchange will do its job and eliminate the possibility of imblanaced prices, but once in a while such possibility does appear, and more often in a volatile market.

Triggers

Download the trigger file.

Inside the file you'll find a bunch of constants to play with:

The minimum number of selections the triggers allow is 3 (you get to choose which), the maximum is 6. Therefore you can pick, say, 2nd to 4th favourites or 5th to 10th, but not 1st to 2nd or 3rd to 13th.

I personally would stay away from short races (like 5,6 or 7f) as there isn't enough time for the prices to create a green-up opportunity after the market turns In-Play.

Also note that the more selections you want to apply the Dutching to, the less are the chances that the Dutching will ever happen. Ultimately, if you include all your selections in the Dutching, you will hardly get to bet because the probability of the book% to increase to a significant degree will be close to zero (I'm talking about high liquidity markets). Of course you can decrease the value of the drop_prc to allow for more runners to be included into a Dutching.

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