Laying against 0 - 1 in Correct Score (football)
This strategy is very similar to Laying against 0 – 3 or 3 – 0 in Correct Score in favour of the underdog, except that is even more straightforward: you lay against 0 – 1, period.
I was intrigued by a member of a betting forum to test this strategy as they claimed that statistically this outcome (0 – 1) happens less often than, say, 1 – 0.
Without adding further complications to this strategy, except for a plain loss recovery, I set to this task. See my results below.
Profile name: lay-0-1-correct-score
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can adjust:
|min_odds||Minimum lay price|
|max_odds||Maximum lay price|
|max_recovery_odds||Maximum price during the loss recovery cycle|
|min_vlm||Minimum market volume (Correct Score)|
|mins_before_start||When to start betting (minutes before the off)|
|init_liab||Size of liability (% of current bank)|
|target_loss||Maximum loss (% of bank) after which the triggers stop betting|
|target_profit||Maximum profit (% of bank) after which the triggers stop betting|
|cycle_length||Number of steps in the loss recovery cycle|
There was no limit on the number of matches where the bets could be placed simultaneously.
Triggers In Action
Throughout the whole testing period, I have tested the triggers with the following settings:
Day 1, July 09, 2019
Total P/L: 25.36
Wins: 35, losses: 3.
Day 2, July 10, 2019
Total P/L: 5.78
Wins: 28, losses: 3.
Day 3, July 11, 2019
Total P/L: 37.12
Wins: 46, losses: 0.
Day 4, July 12, 2019
Total P/L: 62.0
Wins: 30, losses: 3.
Day 5, July 13, 2019
Total P/L: 59.17
Wins: 72, losses: 6.
Day 6, July 14, 2019
Total P/L: 11.41
Wins: 49, losses: 1.
Day 7, July 15, 2019
Total P/L: 13.82
Wins: 32, losses: 3.
Day 8, July 16, 2019
Total P/L: -109.41
Wins: 22, losses: 4.
While the balance growth looks very promising for the whole week up to 16/07, I personally would not go for this plan because of the sharp plunge at the end of the graph. Something tells me that I might never recover from such a plunge, as my liabilities increased very soon after a series of losses. Generally, I was surprised that it stayed in the green for such a long time.
I don’t have any logical grounds to believe that this strategy is worth pursuing in the long run, although it does look good within a short time frame. I would maybe stay away from matches with an obvious favourite playing away. In that case, I’d add the following condition to the laying trigger:
and Selection’s Trigger Expression football1_s_2_back_price is greater than X
where X is the minimum price of the away team. Remember that for this condition to work, you will also have to load and refresh the Match Odds market before the bet is placed (and delete it later).
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How and where I test the triggers?I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.
I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.
I use Test Mode only.
You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.
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