Backing on the selection with the greatest increase in matched volume%

Description

This is the first Trigger in Action that is based on the report from our soon-to-be-released new service BFStats. This service will test some predefined and bespoke strategies in different types of sports against historical market data and allow you to use several filters to find the optimal combination that will bring you the maximum profit.

I tested the common sense idea of backing on the horse whose matched volume percentage has increased the most over the few minutes before the start of the race.

Prior to actually testing this idea with triggers, as part of the BFStats service, we prepared a report based on 130,000 races whose historical data we have acquired under BetFair's Historical Data Licence. It's the same historical data as used in our Time Machine.

Sample report from BFStats.com

A sample BFStats report

The report reflects the growth of volume of matched money on horses in various races. The data is displayed for the horses with the maximum change in volume over the 10 minutes preceding the start of the race. The report did not take into account the markets where the sum of matched money was less than £1,000 at 10 minutes before the start.

The report compares specifically the percentage of money matched on each horse, not the absolute amount of money matched. It may happen that the favourite will have the biggest lump of money poured in just before the off, yet the second favourite will increase its percentage of money placed, for example, from 2% to 15%, and so the bet will be place on the latter, not the former.

So after I'd got the impressive backtesting data, I put together a simple set of triggers:

That's it: flat stakes, no loss recovery, no fiddling with trading out to reduce the loss! And yet it's working!

Triggers

Download the trigger setup file.

Profile name: back-max-volume-increase

How to run this trigger package:

1. Download and run the above installation file.

2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).

3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:

Here are the constants you can adjust:

mins1 Number of minutes before the off to remember selections
mins2 Number of minutes before the off when to place a bet
min_vlm Minimum matched market volume at the start of monitoring
min_change Minimum change in volume%
max_change Maximum change in volume%
bet_size Size of bet, % of current bank
min_bet Minimum bet amount
max_rank Maximum rank of the selection to back on

Triggers In Action

August 23 to September 15, 2020

During the whole period of testing, I've used the following settings:

mins1 10
mins2 0.1
min_vlm 1000
min_change 5
max_change 25
bet_size 1
min_bet 5
max_rank 6

The values of min_change and max_change have been selected beforehand, experimentally.

I have tested the triggers for 24 days in a row -- the longest stretch of time in the historry of Triggers in Action!

Day 1, August 23, 2020

Total P/L: 67.63
ROI: 22.5%
Wins: 11, losses: 20.

Download Statement for 23/08/2020

Day 2, August 24, 2020

Total P/L: 173.21
ROI: 34.06%
Wins: 14, losses: 31.

Download Statement for 24/08/2020

Day 3, August 25, 2020

Total P/L: 189.52
ROI: 26.32%
Wins: 22, losses: 33.

Download Statement for 25/08/2020

Day 4, August 26, 2020

Total P/L: 67.25
ROI: 7.53%
Wins: 21, losses: 46.

Download Statement for 26/08/2020

Day 5, August 27, 2020

Total P/L: 254.29
ROI: 23.05%
Wins: 23, losses: 48.

The number of bets was equally small (even less races would now qualify), but luckily I did not suffer any losses.

Download Statement for 27/08/2020

Day 6, August 28, 2020

Total P/L: 92.48
ROI: 8.47%
Wins: 19, losses: 40.

Download Statement for 28/08/2020

Day 7, August 29, 2020

Total P/L: 365.65
ROI: 16.50%
Wins: 25, losses: 70.

Download Statement for 29/08/2020

Day 8, August 30, 2020

Total P/L: 56.79
ROI: 4.86%
Wins: 14, losses: 38.

Download Statement for 30/08/2020

Day 9, August 31, 2020

Total P/L: -188.27
ROI: -18.02%
Wins: 11, losses: 36.

Download Statement for 31/08/2020

Day 10, September 01, 2020

Total P/L: -50.42
ROI: -4.94%
Wins: 12, losses: 42.

Download Statement for 01/09/2020

Day 11, September 02, 2020

Total P/L: -367.06
ROI: -33.58%
Wins: 11, losses: 51.

Download Statement for 02/09/2020

Day 12, September 03, 2020

Total P/L: 44.68
ROI: 3.75%
Wins: 21, losses: 50.

Download Statement for 03/09/2020

Day 13, September 04, 2020

Total P/L: 5.57
ROI: 0.5%
Wins: 15, losses: 51.

Download Statement for 04/09/2020

Day 14, September 05, 2020

Total P/L: 377.67
ROI: 27.73%
Wins: 24, losses: 56.

Download Statement for 05/09/2020

Day 15, September 06, 2020

Total P/L: -71.79
ROI: -7.62%
Wins: 9, losses: 41.

Download Statement for 06/09/2020

Day 16, September 07, 2020

Total P/L: 421.10
ROI: 43.45%
Wins: 11, losses: 33.

Download Statement for 07/09/2020

Day 17, September 08, 2020

Total P/L: -265.52
ROI: -21.42%
Wins: 14, losses: 40.

Download Statement for 08/09/2020

Day 18, September 09, 2020

Total P/L: 39.36
ROI: 2.87%
Wins: 14, losses: 48.

Download Statement for 09/09/2020

Day 19, September 10, 2020

Total P/L: 536.95
ROI: 46.84%
Wins: 17, losses: 32.

Download Statement for 10/09/2020

Day 20, September 11, 2020

Total P/L: -229.97
ROI: -12.57%
Wins: 12, losses: 55.

Download Statement for 11/09/2020

Day 21, September 12, 2020

Total P/L: 318.21
ROI: 16.28%
Wins: 24, losses: 58.

Download Statement for 12/09/2020

Day 22, September 13, 2020

Total P/L: -229.12
ROI: -15.25%
Wins: 13, losses: 45.

Download Statement for 13/09/2020

Day 23, September 14, 2020

Total P/L: 648.84
ROI: 49.8%
Wins: 16, losses: 29.

Download Statement for 14/09/2020

Day 24, September 15, 2020

Total P/L: 179.48
ROI: 29.3%
Wins: 7, losses: 11.

Download Statement for 15/09/2020 

My bank balance and statistics:

Backing on the selection with the greatest increase in matched volume%

Starting Bank: 1,000
Final Bank: 3,436.55
Max. Drawdown: -76.97
Max. Profit: 2,652.04
Max. single-bet loss:
-39.42
Total P/L:
2,436.55
ROI: 8.80%

That's right, the net profit is £2,436.55, you can trust your eyes! Although I did not trust mine at first. 

Here are possible hidden pitfalls you should be aware of:

This strategy seems to be working in the long run, at least that's what the stats are telling us, and also the 24 days over which I have run these triggers.

There is a catch in the trigger settings: I did not use the most profitable ones! There are further filters by country, race length, price range, and even type of bet (back or lay) which will allow you to maximise your profits!

If you are interested in trying them out, be among the first to use our new service BFStats which we are currently preparing for release. Subscribe to our newsletter (below) and be the first to learn about new reviews and new services!

Download the trigger installation file above and start testing this strategy right now! Are you not using MarketFeeder Pro yet? Try now!

How and where I test the triggers?

I use our BetVPS service to pre-set the triggers and Market Locator and leave it to run on its own until I check on the results at the end of the day.

I occasionally use Time Machine to get a proof of concept or test any tweaks that I want to make to my triggers, on historical markets similar to the ones in which I bet when testing a particular strategy.

I use Test Mode only.

You can generate your own graph and statistics like the ones in these Triggers in Action reports. Read how to do this.

If you would like a unique guest-post for your blog covering one of such strategies, please email me a request.

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